New study on shooting accuracy. How does your agency stack up?

The newest study of police shooting accuracy in deadly force encounters reflects the experience of just one municipal department. But to whatever extent the findings can be generalized, the picture is indeed a disturbing one.

Researchers analyzed 149 real-life OISs recorded over a 15-year period by Dallas (TX) PD. In nearly half of these encounters, officers firing at a single suspect delivered โ€œcomplete inaccuracy.โ€ That is, they missed the target entirely.

In 15 incidents, the total number of rounds fired could not be determined. But in the 134 cases where researchers could establish that figure, they calculated the hit rate, โ€œincredibly,โ€ at merely 35%. In other words, more than six out of 10 rounds fired were misses.

โ€œUnfortunately,โ€ the study says, โ€œthe data do not provide a clear picture of what happened with these [errant] rounds, but, at worst, they struck other officers or innocent bystanders.โ€

The research team, Dr. Christopher Donner and Nicole Popovich of the CJ department at Loyola U. in Chicago, note that โ€œalthough the amountโ€”and qualityโ€”of firearms training received by officers over the last century has increased considerably, there appears to have been little improvement in shooting accuracy.โ€

Once again, โ€œHollywood entertainment [that] routinely depicts the police as sharp shootersโ€ falls far short of combat reality.

DISMAL HISTORY. Donner and Popovich begin a recently published paper on their investigation by recapping prior studies that have consistently found police shooting accuracy to be โ€œnoticeably low.โ€

From the earliest measurements in the 1970s, a wide range of researchers have documented that โ€œpolice departments rarely ever achieve a 50% hit rate,โ€ the authors report. Annual hit-rate averages in large departments such as New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Las Vegas, for example, have typically ranged from 22% to 52% over the decades.

โ€œGiven the amount of firearms training the police receive, it would be assumed that they hit their target more often than not,โ€ the researchers state. But the truth is that โ€œofficers are routinely inaccurate in their use of deadly force.โ€

In zeroing in on this subject with fresh eyes, Donner and Popovich intended not only to reassess police shooting accuracy but to โ€œexplore what factorsโ€”officer, subject, and situationalโ€โ€”appear to influence hits or misses.

Studying these factors, they hoped, could lead to โ€œmore effective policy and training to help officers be more accurate when they are faced with deadly force situations.โ€

OIS DISSECTION. Combing a public data set maintained by Dallas PD regarding its officer-involved shootings, the researchers found reports on 231 OIS events from 2003 to 2017, including specs on officers, suspects, situations, locations, and other contextual information. For simplicity, they write, they focused on โ€œsingle officer/single suspect shooting incidents wherein a single suspect was shot atโ€”or byโ€”a single officer.โ€ They isolated 149 such encounters.

To assess accuracy, the researchers coded and analyzed cases in two ways:

  • โ€œincident levelโ€ that is, regardless of how many shots the officer fired, did he or she hit the intended target at least once?
  • โ€œbullet level,โ€ which took into consideration the number of shots fired, allowing for a mathematical hit rate to be computed. Of the 149 selected cases, 134 had sufficient data for bullet-level analysis.

In addition to accuracy, the researchers parsed all incidents for a range of independent variables, including officer and suspect gender and race, officer experience, the presence of non-shooting fellow officers, suspect weapons and threat level, and time of day.

KEY FINDINGS. Donner and Popovich consider these results to be of significance:

Incident-level accuracy. Among all 149 shootings studied, officers struck the suspect โ€œwith at least one round 54% of the time.โ€ There was some fluctuation from year to year, but the overall prevailing trend was about a 50/50 split between hits and missesโ€”โ€œnot very accurate,โ€ the researchers note.

Bullet-level accuracy. Here, officers fired 354 rounds at suspects. Half the officers โ€œwere entirely inaccurate,โ€ including one who fired 23 misses! Overall, about one-third (35%) of all officersโ€™ rounds hit the targeted suspect. Most of those who had โ€œperfect marksmanshipโ€ fired only one round.

Other variables. โ€œVirtually all the incidents involved male suspects and male officers,โ€ the researchers report. โ€œAlmost one-fifth involved white suspects and just under half involved white officers.โ€ Two-thirds of the shootings occurred during the evening or overnight. Fellow officers who did not shoot were present with the shooting officer in 70% of the incidents. And in about four-fifths of the shootings, the suspect had a weapon and displayed/used it.

Only a few of these factors appeared to correlate clearly with accuracy or inaccuracy, the researchers found. For example:

  • Black suspects were significantly less likely to be hit than white subjects;
  • โ€œ[N]on-white officers were less likely to be accurateโ€;
  • โ€œIncidents that took place during daylight hours were [significantly] more likely to result in the suspect being hitโ€ (likely related to better โ€œvisual acuityโ€);
  • โ€œ[O]fficers were more accurate when shooting at unarmed suspects.โ€

Given the differences across the country in agenciesโ€™ UOF policies and training, the authors caution that the โ€œgeneralizability of findingsโ€ from a single department โ€œmay be limited.โ€ They urge that future research โ€œinvestigate shooting accuracy in a more comprehensive modelโ€ to confirm that their findings are typical of law enforcement as a whole.

PRACTICAL TAKE-AWAYS. Meanwhile, despite its limitations, the current study offers several implications โ€œin the realms of training and accountability,โ€ Donner and Popovich write.

Along with good marksmanship and firearms handling, a successful OIS requires accurate shoot/donโ€™t shoot decision-making, the ability to shoot at โ€œunpredictable and moving targets,โ€ and the ability to perform these skills โ€œwithin high-stress circumstances,โ€ they point out.

In addressing these demands, they argue, firearms training should โ€œsufficiently replicate a realistic environment.โ€ Rather than relying solely on shooting at paper targets or at images projected onto a screen, โ€œpolice administrators should mandate training scenarios take place in mock buildings or mock townsโ€ a la the FBIโ€™s Hoganโ€™s Alley, so that โ€œtraining exercises put officers โ€˜out on the streetโ€™ โ€ to test both their shooting judgment and their โ€œ โ€˜real-lifeโ€™ firearm accuracy.โ€

In addition, โ€œadministrators should consider the importance of sentinel event and near miss reviews for improving OIS performance and accuracy.โ€ A sentinel event, Donner and Popovich explain, is โ€œa significant negative outcome,โ€ such as an unjustified use of deadly force. Analyzed and shared at roll call briefings and in-service training, the insights gained from such reviews could be valuable โ€œin preventing future adverse outcomes.โ€

Also in training curricula and roll call briefings, the researchers say, โ€œadministrators should make it a priority…to emphasize the importance of accountability.โ€ Given the potential unintended lethality of wayward rounds, society expects officers โ€œto be accountable for every bullet discharged from their firearms,โ€ just as it expects them to be โ€œaccountable for every decision they makeโ€ when they use force.

In conclusion, the researchers raise a provocative question: โ€œGiven the chaotic nature of police shootingsโ€ and the persistent pattern of generally low accuracy across five decades despite presumed upgrades in officer training, is 50% shooting accuracy perhaps โ€œthe best society can expect?โ€

As training continues to evolve, the answer is yet to be told. The challenge, meanwhile, is to keep that benchmark from getting worse.

The Donner/Popovich study, titled โ€œHitting (or missing) the mark: An examination of police shooting accuracy in officer-involved shooting incidents,โ€ appears in Policing: An International Journal. A free abstract, as well as a link to purchase the full report, can be accessed by clicking here.

Force Science Institute

This information originallyย appearedย inย Force Science News #378.ย Learn more about Force Science Institute.